Cloud Computing

IT in 2018: Turing’s Machine to the Computing Cloud

This small, 8 page presentation is offered as a joint-marketing effort between both Nicholas Carr and Internet.com; as such, it both condenses and simplifies his work.

That said, it does offer a succinct overview of the fundamental transition he feels is likely to occur during the next decade as we move from the ‘World Wide Web’ to the ‘World Wide Computer’. As this is targeted at the corporate IT audience, his analysis begins at the level of data centre hardware and infrastructure.

Background

Crucially, all of the key trends and dynamics Carr believes are important are ‘in-play’ right now - to varying degrees. Carr sets-out a sequential process that takes us from hardware consolidation, to substitution, then to a fuller level of virtualisation.

This is the point at which the network becomes the cloud.

Underpinning both, are two explicit trends:

1 - the cost of computing power and storage capacity continues its decades-long fall;

2 - communication technologies and their infrastructure continue to become both faster and cheaper

Carr proposes a key inflexion point; when the law of diminishing (individual) returns leads to the emergence of consolidation not just within a company but also between companies. That is, “Private infrastructure will turn into a shared utility.” In conjunction with the two trends mentioned, this takes us to a point where, to quote Sun Microsystems as Carr does, the ‘network is the computer‘.

When other companies simultaneously build-out both the computing grid infrastructure and offer enhanced tools for application configuration & control, the shift “… from local computing to cloud computing will only broaden and accelerate.” Envisioned as a self-sustaining trend, Carr’s believes this reveals one of the fundamental benefits of this evolution. Namely, collaboration, moving away from solely proprietary options to the sharing of data and software.

In effect, the embodiment of the utility model and the source of future value generation.

Carr’s key themes for 2018

These are founded on a key assumption; “connectivity is ubiquitous and seamless”.

1- The pace of evolution for this process will not be universal. Expect different rates of change and adoption to occur and be influenced by both the state of the overall infrastucture itself as well as the emergence of individual business opportunities.

2 - Expect a hybrid-IT environment which blends private and utility functions.

3 - “Competition for control of the grid is intense…”. Expect multiple stakeholders to try to legislate for their own particular interests across all available political levels. Expect divergent aims as well as ’single-issue coalitions’ and alliances.

4 - There will be no net neutrality. De facto, traffic will be prioritised according to origination and use and business will be privileged. This will be a routine & uncontentious state-of-affairs.

5 - Only a half-dozen operators will eventually run the grid.

6 - To allow “… data and service modules to be integrated in a much easier way than is possible today” new standards of interoperability will be needed: these will have to be formulated, agreed and implemented in the timeframe.

7 - Corporate IT departments will - of necessity - undergo a functional and skill-set transformation. This will drive “… a realignment of the IT workforce”.

8 - Access devices may become items of ’shared property’ as the distinction between work-access & personal-access become increasingly blurred.

9 - Look for the emergent economic models behind overall ICT & data supply: if the grid does enable cost reduction this - of itself - begins to drive advantage and “… companies inevitably move to the cheapest method of supply. It becomes a competitive necessity”.

At the heart of Carr’s future position is the statement “… the new computing utilities will shake up many markets and open myriad opportunities for innovation. Harnessing the power of the computing grid may be the great enterprise of the twenty-first century”.

The presentation “IT in 2018: From Turing’s Machine to the Computing Cloud” is available from Internet.com (registration may be required).

© 2008 Online Futures Group.